Recently, there has been an active discussion of strengthening the grouping of Russians in Belarus. Echelons with military equipment arrive from the Russian Federation.
A major bilateral exercise has been announced. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko makes the same statements as a year earlier. In February last year, after a similar exercise "Allied Resolve-2022", an armed conflict began.
And for many, this causes a feeling of deja vu. It seems that a year ago it was the same, which means the Russians will launch another offensive against Kyiv?
There are nuances here. In 2022, no one expected a wide "invasion" of the Russian troops and it was supposed to introduce a limited contingent in the Kyiv direction. Now there is a full-scale armed conflict.
Currently, both sides do not have enough forces to provide full-fledged defense along the entire front line, which can increase to almost two thousand kilometers with the resumption of hostilities in the Kyiv and Sumy regions. Therefore, the side with the initiative has the advantage, due to the ability to choose the time and place of strikes. And now the advantage is on the side of Russia.
Mobilization has been carried out in Russia. As a result, the number of contingents increased by more than 300 thousand people. About half of them have not yet appeared on the fronts. And it is still unknown to what area they will be directed.
Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced to withdraw part of the forces to cover the border with Belarus. At the same time, problems in the area of Soledar and Bakhmut are growing and everything suggests that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will soon leave this line of defense.
All analysts recognize the possibility of a strike by the RF Armed Forces from Belarus as unlikely. Most likely it is a Russian bluff. Or maybe not.