Politics: Left

Tuesday was quite the day in American politics. Former President Donald Trump was arraigned in Manhattan and pleaded not guilty to 34 charges of falsifying business records in the first degree. It was also Election Day in one of the country's purplest...

With apologies to fans of Florida Atlantic, Miami and San Diego State, three-quarters of the 2023 men's Final Four didn't look like they belonged there. One year after we got four of the game's preeminent programs, this year's event welcom...

As the informal primary contest between former president Trump and Florida governor Ron DeSantis heats up, it appears that Republican primary voters have cooled a little on DeSantis. But in part 2 of this week's FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, they ...

In the midst of news about the possible indictment of a former president, some of the biggest news in the country has gone unmentioned on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Yes, we're talking about pop icon Taylor Swift's "Eras" tour. W...

In the midst of news about the possible indictment of a former president, some of the biggest news in the country has gone unmentioned on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Yes, we're talking about pop icon Taylor Swift's "Eras" tour. W...

The 2023 men's NCAA Tournament has transformed into a bloodletting exercise for the sport's traditional powers. Of the 15 teams that claim at least two national championships, only eight qualified for the tournament at all, and only one advanced p...

We're not exactly strangers to low-probability events here at FiveThirtyEight. But even for a month defined by uncertainty on the hardwood, this March dealt us an extra helping of disruptions to your scheduled programming. The first matchup of the men...

On Friday, Michigan repealed an 11-year-old law that weakened unions' power in the workplace. Known as a "right-to-work" law, this type of legislation has been around since at least 1943, and Michigan is now one of only a handful of states to ...

All eyes have been on the Manhattan district attorney's office this week to see whether Donald Trump will become the first former American president to be indicted on criminal charges. It appears unlikely that an indictment will come this week. And ev...

All eyes have been on the Manhattan district attorney's office this week to see whether Donald Trump will become the first former American president to be indicted on criminal charges. It appears unlikely that an indictment will come this week. And ev...

Despite a near-constant swirl of legal problems, former President Donald Trump has managed to avoid indictment so far. But one prosecutor seems poised to take the plunge and become the first to criminally indict a former president. Alvin Bragg, the Manhat...

In the modern NBA, there is no resource more valuable than time on the shot clock. In fact, it's the only thing that teams can't score without. While it's tough to put the ball in the basket if you don't have a high-level ball handler or m...

We thought we were safe. The flu season was tapering off. Spring was in the air (sort of, some places). As flu cases flatlined through January and February, Americans breathed a sigh of relief, kicked up our collective feet ... and immediately realized we...

In part 2 of this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew looks back at the bailout of American banks during the 2007-'08 financial crisis....

In part 1 of this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew looks back at the 2003 invasion of Iraq as the country marks the 20th anniversary of the Iraq War....

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew looks back at two of the most notable American political decisions of the 21st century: the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the bailout of American banks during the 2007-'08 financial cri...

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. When Silicon Valley Bank collapsed last week, it caused the stock market to begin a five-day drop. The stocks for regional banks, in particular, dropped significantly, even as federal regulators worked ...

The month of madness is upon us, and it didn't take long for the moniker to deliver. In the third game of the opening full day of the 2023 men's NCAA Tournament, No. 7 seed Missouri advanced past No. 10 Utah State, 76-65. Wait, that doesn't so...

The U.S. Census may be the most consequential data set in America. It determines how political representation is apportioned in Washington and how trillions of dollars in federal funding are allocated. But the data contained in the Census shouldn't al...

It feels like November in Wisconsin — and not just because of the weather. TV watchers in the Badger State are again being badgered by political ads. Of course, there's no presidential, Senate or House race happening soon. Instead, all that adve...

For the second consecutive men's college basketball season, just five of the 15 teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference were selected to participate in the NCAA Tournament: Duke earned an automatic bid and the No. 5 seed in the East after winning the A...

There's nothing like bringing a baby onto the House floor to get the country's attention. Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez went viral in early January when he showed up to vote for the new House speaker wearing his son Hodge strapped to his chest in a ...

Does defense really win championships? Well, we're about to find out in the 2023 men's NCAA Tournament, which tips off its round of 64 on Thursday afternoon. The top four seeds in the tournament — Houston, Alabama, Kansas and Purdue — ...

Florida's legislative session may have just gotten underway, but lawmakers there already have plenty to do. That's, in part, because Republicans there have presented a flurry of bills that would transform K-12 and higher education in the state &md...

In part 2 of this week's FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux about how the debate over abortion has evolved in the aftermath of the 2022 midterms....

In part 1 of this week's FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, the crew explains why the polls in 2022 had one of its most successful election cycles in U.S. history....

Polling had its most accurate election cycle in at least 25 years in 2022. That may come as a surprise to election watchers who suggested that the polls had a notable pro-Republican bias. But in this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, th...

One of the most tumultuous seasons in women's basketball history is rolling toward a conclusion with the NCAA Tournament, beginning with a quartet of play-in games Wednesday and Thursday, and then the tournament proper on Friday. Get your brackets rea...

In the second half of 2021, housing prices rose faster in Florida than in any other state. In some cities, rents soared by as much as 30 percent that summer. This put an enormous strain on families living in Florida and already struggling to pay rent, esp...

There was nothing overtly biased about the way the Wilkes-Barre Township Police Department described a mugging on its Facebook page in February 2019. The first post simply described a Black suspect who was alleged to have threatened a victim with a gun an...

The opening act of the 2022-23 men's college basketball season was characterized by the rise of unfamiliar top dogs, the preseason favorite falling flat and the game's great innovators continuing to ride off into the sunset. But now we've fina...

Welcome to The Riddler. Every week, I offer up problems related to the things we hold dear around here: math, logic and probability. Two puzzles are presented each week: the Riddler Express for those of you who want something bite-size and the Riddler Cla...

Transcript Nathaniel Rakich: The death of polling has been greatly exaggerated. After the 2016 and 2020 elections, when the polls had a rough year, a lot of people wanted to leave them for dead. But in 2022, polls had one of their most accurate election c...

The Details Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we have been evaluating pollsters and using these r...

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Last Saturday, a Norfolk Southern freight train derailed in Springfield, Ohio, taking out power for over 1,000 people and prompting authorities to issue a temporary shelter-in-place order for nearby res...

Let's give a big round of applause to the pollsters. Measuring public opinion is, in many ways, harder than ever — and yet, the polling industry just had one of its most successful election cycles in U.S. history. Despite a loud chorus of naysay...

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke and Nate Silver open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about politics and polling. They cover American skepticism of artificial intelligence — according to one poll,...

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Galen Druke and Nate Silver open up the mailbag and answer listener questions about politics and polling. They cover American skepticism of artificial intelligence — according to one poll,...

In their first full legislative sessions after the Supreme Court overruled Roe v. Wade, Republican state legislators are being pressed on what "pro-life" really means. There are plenty of bills focusing on abortion restrictions — particularl...

Transcript Santul Nerkar: Inflation in America is high. You've probably noticed when you've gone to the grocery store or gas station. But ordinary Americans aren't the only ones unhappy with our current 6 percent inflation rate. The Federal Re...

March Madness is nearly upon us, and soon there will be brackets to overanalyze. But if you're like most Americans, you probably haven't been paying full attention just yet to the regular seasons of men's and women's college basketball. So...

Over the past 18 months, inflation has dominated our understanding of the pandemic economy. Americans have endured the highest yearly price increases in four decades, from soup to nuts — literally. Even now, as experts and forecasters worry that the...

Before losing to the Charlotte Hornets in somewhat embarrassing fashion on Tuesday night, the New York Knicks had been the hottest team in professional basketball. If you've paid any attention to the NBA over the past two decades or so, you know that ...

On top of all those strange new rules, there's another twist to baseball this March: the return of the World Baseball Classic, the always-entertaining tournament that is essentially baseball's equivalent of the World Cup. (The rules are similar, t...

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight's politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst): Last weekend, conservative activists and media members alike descended on Washington, D.C., for the Conserv...

The Department of Energy says COVID-19 was caused by a lab leak. But that doesn't mean COVID-19 was definitely caused by a lab leak. In fact, the agency's report, which made headlines last week, states it has "low confidence" in its own co...

When Virginia state Sen. Jennifer McClellan is sworn into the House of Representatives this evening, Congress's lower chamber will be something it hasn't been in a long time: full. The last time the U.S. had a full House — with all 435 of it...

When the New York Mets signed Justin Verlander to a two-year, $86 million contract in December, there were a few reasonable ways for fans to look at it. Yes, Verlander is entering his age-40 season. But he is also the defending American League Cy Young Aw...

The origins of the affirmative action debate arguably revolved around a racial binary of white and Black students. But the face of victimhood has now changed. In a case pending before the U.S. Supreme Court targeting Harvard University, a group founded by...