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 2022-07-01 20:46 

Advisor Perspectives

S&P 500 Snapshot: Down Again...

The S&P 500 declined four out of five days this week, ending Friday higher than all but Monday's close. The index is down 19.7% YTD and is 20.25% below its record close - that makes four consecutive "bear" days and twelve of the last 19....

 2022-07-01 20:18 

Advisor Perspectives

Crestmont Market Valuation Update: June 2022...

Quick take: Based on the June S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is 124% above its arithmetic mean and at the 98th percentile of this fourteen-plus-decade monthly metric....

 2022-07-01 19:30 

Advisor Perspectives

Cryptocurrencies Through 7/1...

Here's the latest on the largest cryptocurrencies by market share....

 2022-07-01 17:40 

Advisor Perspectives

Mid-Year Themes...

Inflation, China, Russia, Central Banks, Labor, Recession: It's been quite a year thus far....

 2022-07-01 17:25 

Advisor Perspectives

The End of Indexing...

It took me a long, long time to write The End of Indexing ....

 2022-07-01 15:04 

Advisor Perspectives

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Update...

This morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts the WLI at 149.3, down 1.5 from the previous week's figure. The WLIg is at -6.7, down from last week and the WLI YoY is at -4.58%, also down from last week....

 2022-07-01 14:37 

Advisor Perspectives

"HODL" Finds Its Inevitable Flaw...

"HODL," an original misspelling taken on as a badge of courage by cryptocurrency investors, spread to "Meme stocks" during the runup in 2020 and 2021....

 2022-07-01 14:18 

Advisor Perspectives

Looking for Recession Clues in All the Wrong Places?...

How quickly the narrative has shifted back and forth in the money and bond markets....

 2022-07-01 14:15 

Advisor Perspectives

June ISM Manufacturing Index: Lowest in 2 Years...

This morning the Institute for Supply Management published its monthly Manufacturing Report for June. The latest headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 53.0, a decrease of 3.1 from 56.1 the previous month and in expansion territory. Today's head...

 2022-07-01 14:06 

Advisor Perspectives

June Markit Manufacturing: Lowest Since Oct 2020...

The June US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 52.7, down 4.3 from the final May figure. Markit's Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index: A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; below 50 indicates...

 2022-06-30 21:21 

Advisor Perspectives

Moving Averages: S&P Down 8.4% in June...

Valid until the market close on July 29, 2022. The S&P 500 closed June with a monthly loss of 8.39% after a micro-fractional gain of 0.01% in May. At this point, after close on the last day of the month, four of five S&P 500 strategies are signaling "...

 2022-06-30 20:50 

Advisor Perspectives

Weekly Gasoline Prices: Regular and Premium Inch Down...

As of June 27, the price of Regular and Premium were down 9 and 7 cents each, respectively, from the previous week. According to GasBuddy.com, California has the highest average price for Regular at $6.27 and South Carolina has the cheapest at $4.32. The ...

 2022-06-30 17:15 

Advisor Perspectives

Safer With an Active Asset Management Approach Than with None or a Passive One...

In the light of multiple discussions raised in AP community about strategies that help investors through market downturns, we would like to share a perspective on advantages of an active asset management approach or so-called actively traded hedge-fund st...

 2022-06-30 17:06 

Advisor Perspectives

Bitcoin Tests $19,000...

The crypto investing front has taken another barrage of body blows, pushing Bitcoin to test the $19,000 per coin level once again....

 2022-06-30 17:02 

Advisor Perspectives

Taking the Consumer's Temperature...

With consumer behavior under a magnifying glass, Portfolio Manager Jennifer Thomas, shares her assessment of the US consumer....

 2022-06-30 16:59 

Advisor Perspectives

The Fed Is Actually Fixing Inequality, Unfortunately...

Last Thursday, Elizabeth Warren expressed skepticism about the Fed tightening monetary policy, saying it would make people poor....

 2022-06-30 16:36 

Advisor Perspectives

A Stagflationary Debt Crisis Looms...

There is ample reason to worry that major economies like the United States are heading for a recession, accompanied by cascading financial turmoil....

 2022-06-30 16:32 

Advisor Perspectives

Somber Summer...

The Northern Trust Economics team shares its outlook for key markets in the month ahead....

 2022-06-30 16:11 

Advisor Perspectives

Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down Again in May...

With the release of this morning's report on May's Personal Incomes and Outlays, we can now take a closer look at "Real" Disposable Personal Income Per Capita . At two decimal places, the nominal .051% month-over-month change in disposable...

 2022-06-30 15:38 

Advisor Perspectives

The Big Four: Real Personal Income in May...

Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) in May rose 0.69% and is up 8.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts) MoM was up 0.10%. The real number i...

 2022-06-30 13:40 

Advisor Perspectives

PCE Price Index: May Headline at 6.35% YoY...

The BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for May was published this morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The latest Headline PCE price index was up 0.59% month-over-month (MoM) and is up 6.35% year-over-year (YoY). Core PCE (YoY) is now at ...

 2022-06-30 13:03 

Advisor Perspectives

Weekly Unemployment Claims: Down Another 2K...

This morning's seasonally adjusted 231K new claims, down 2K from the previous week's revised figure, was above the Investing.com forecast of 2278K....

 2022-06-29 22:10 

Advisor Perspectives

Moving Averages Month-End Preview: Down 7.6% in June...

Here is an advance preview of the monthly moving averages we track after the close of the last business day of the month....

 2022-06-29 22:06 

Advisor Perspectives

Treasury Snapshot: 2-10 Spread at 0.04%...

The yield on the 10-year note ended June 29, 2022, at 3.10%, the 2-year note ended at 3.06%, and the 30-year at 3.22%....

 2022-06-29 19:11 

Advisor Perspectives

No Excuses: Plan Now for Recession...

Now is the time to engage in risk management to retain your competitive advantage once the economy emerges from the slowdown....

 2022-06-29 13:29 

Advisor Perspectives

Q1 GDP Third Estimate: Real GDP at -1.6%, Worse Than Forecast...

The Third Estimate for Q1 GDP, to one decimal, came in at -1.6% (-1.57% to two decimal places), a decrease from 6.9% (6.89% to two decimal places) for the Q4 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of 1.5%....

 2022-06-29 12:51 

Advisor Perspectives

2022 Global Market Outlook Q3 update: Fear of the known...

Recession fears and central-bank tightening are driving market volatility....

 2022-06-29 12:42 

Advisor Perspectives

Key Takeaways From Our 2021 Advisor Fixed Income Portfolio Review...

We examine key themes from our review of advisor fixed income portfolios over the past year....

 2022-06-29 12:21 

Advisor Perspectives

2022 Mid-Year Corporate Credit Outlook...

After the steep drop in prices during the first half of this year, yields on many corporate bond investments are at or near 12-year highs....

 2022-06-29 11:55 

Advisor Perspectives

The Monetary Surge Continues to Ebb...

We've told people to watch the M2 measure of money in order to understand whether inflation will cool down or heat up....

 2022-06-29 11:49 

Advisor Perspectives

Are We Talking Ourselves Into A Recession?...

As I have indicated in recent weeks, I don't really understand why the media has turned so bearish on the US economy lately, and why so many forecasters are predicting we're either just about to enter a potentially nasty recession or we're alr...

 2022-06-29 11:39 

Advisor Perspectives

Heavy Metal Omen for Energy Prices...

Energy commodity prices (the index in this chart includes crude oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products) have pulled back from the highs, but it could just be the start of a deeper correction if the price action in industrial metal commodities is a...

 2022-06-28 21:42 

Advisor Perspectives

Treasury Snapshot: 2-10 Spread at 0.1%...

The yield on the 10-year note ended June 28, 2022, at 3.20%, the 2-year note ended at 3.10%, and the 30-year at 3.30%....

 2022-06-28 17:44 

Advisor Perspectives

Good Morning, Vietnam...

Vietnam is a frontier market star....

 2022-06-28 17:39 

Advisor Perspectives

High-Yielding High-Quality Dividend Growth Stock Benefiting from Rising Interest Rates...

The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by raising interest rates....

 2022-06-28 17:34 

Advisor Perspectives

More "Stagflation-Lite", Moderately Positive On Equities Ex Europe, Still Negative On Global Bonds...

Our mid-March meeting's "unenthusiastic" stance on global equities and negative stance on global bonds was a respectable decision, as was the overall macro theme "Stagflation Lite with GDP somewhat worse than consensus, but skirting recess...

 2022-06-28 17:31 

Advisor Perspectives

Energy Crunch vs. Consumer Freeze: What Are Stocks Signaling?...

US energy stocks are outperforming consumer discretionary stocks by the widest margin in more than 30 years. Does this mean surging energy prices will trigger a deep freeze in consumer spending?...

 2022-06-28 17:24 

Advisor Perspectives

3 Charts Showing Optimism For The Global Shipping Industry...

Container shipping companies have not been immune to the disruptive factors roiling markets at the moment, namely rising interest rates, soaring inflation and a potential recession, not to mention war in Eastern Europe....

 2022-06-28 17:12 

Advisor Perspectives

Time to Jump Aboard the Value Train...

The market has spent much of 2022 worrying about inflation and associated interest rate rises, and Growth stocks have certainly borne the brunt of this....

 2022-06-28 17:08 

Advisor Perspectives

Buffett, Jones and Hamm: An Oil Wisdom Trifecta...

Someone once said, "Better than being smart is knowing who is!"...

 2022-06-28 14:52 

Advisor Perspectives

Consumer Confidence Down Again in June...

The headline number of 98.7 was a decrease of 4.5 from the final reading of 103.2 for May....

 2022-06-28 14:17 

Advisor Perspectives

April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Up 20% YoY...

With this morning's release of the April S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, we learned that seasonally adjusted home prices for the benchmark 20-city index saw a 1.8% increase month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted national index saw a 20.4% Yo...

 2022-06-28 13:53 

Advisor Perspectives

FHFA House Price Index: Up 1.6% in April...

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has released its U.S. House Price Index (HPI) for April. U.S. house prices were up 1.6%on a seasonally adjusted nominal basis from the previous month. Year-over-year the index is up 18.8% on a non-seasonally adjus...

 2022-06-28 12:38 

Advisor Perspectives

Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Additional Declines in June...

Fifth District manufacturing activity declined in June, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index stood at -19 in June compared to -9 in May....

 2022-06-27 20:10 

Advisor Perspectives

World Markets Update: June 27, 2022...

All eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through June 27, 2022. The top performer is London's FTSE 100 with a YTD loss of 1.71%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in second with a loss of 4.99% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in third with a l...

 2022-06-27 18:50 

Advisor Perspectives

Power of Representation: the 'Us'es'...

To celebrate Pride Month, four PIMCO executives share their perspectives on inclusion and diversity in the workplace and the importance of visible representation....

 2022-06-27 18:47 

Advisor Perspectives

Oil Price Reversions The Inevitable Outcome Of Recessions...

An oil price and energy stock price reversion may be starting....

 2022-06-27 18:41 

Advisor Perspectives

ECB in the News...

Senior Sovereign Analyst Jon Levy answers some key questions about the European Central Bank's latest moves....

 2022-06-27 18:37 

Advisor Perspectives

We're Not Already in a Recession...

Real GDP declined at a 1.5% annual rate in the first quarter and, as of Friday, the Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" model projects zero growth in Q2....

 2022-06-27 18:34 

Advisor Perspectives

Re-discovering the Market's Sweet Spot...

There's a tendency among investors to conflate exposure to the S&P 500 with exposure to the broad market, even though these stocks are almost all large caps....

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